Forecasting freight rates of liquid and dry bulk shipping markets (tankers-bulk carriers)


An IAME2019 Special Session on

Forecasting freight rates of liquid and dry bulk shipping markets (tankers-bulk carriers)

Session organizers:

Alexandros M. Goulielmos - Business College of Athens
Thanassis Karlis - University of Tasmania

During the IAME 2019 conference in Athens, Greece, we intend to organize a special session on the above topic.

We seek a full paper contribution of about 6,000 words after approval of an extended abstract of 750 words.

The purpose of the abstract will be to inform us of: (1) the sector of application, whether tankers or dry cargo; title; (2) Data; length of time series and period to be forecast; (3) Methodology (to be) used in brief but comprehensive manner using only core bibliography; (4) Report on the accuracy of predictions and/or forecasts and criteria used in or out of sample; (5) What is the contribution or innovation of the paper vis-?-vis previous attempts, with reference to them.

Points of excellence: (1) if authors have a previous work(s) in this area, we invite them to self-criticize it (them) and point out if failed or succeeded and the reasons for. Usually forecasts are never verified! (2) Papers using new methodologies rectifying previous ones in improving forecasting or using better (nonlinear?) methods. (3) We all know that forecasting has been left behind and industry does not trust forecasters as never being right. We will appreciate if a paper(s) proves to the contrary. (4) Research that will prove that futures freight rates can help for the more accurate forecasting of the physical market. (5) Welcome are papers that present or contain a proper and genuine bona-fides criticism of previous papers with a strict view to improve forecasting and restore shipping forecasting reputation. (6) Welcome par excellence are papers combining best timing of decisions with best forecasting concerning investments or chartering. (7) Interesting is also papers that will show the failure of predictions-if any-of the markets after end-2008 and the reasons for it.

General comments: To avoid being traditional only: Other markets like LPG, GAS, Chemicals, etc. will not be excluded but their presence will be limited to 1-2 papers, as the case may be.

Our Scope: we are looking for original contributions well- grounded in theory and/or containing novel analysis that will provide new perspectives on forecasting markets with a view to help managers.

Potential contributors please submit abstract following the regular submission schedule as published on the IAME2019 conference website: 

You can opt for a full paper or extended abstract. During the uploading of the abstract kindly mention that the abstract is related to this special session. You are invited to concisely follow the “author guidelines of IAME 2019” which can be found online.

It would be helpful if you could also inform the session organizers on the submitted abstract via my e-mail. It is the intention of the session organizers to edit a special volume on the theme in a high-ranked journal after the IAME 2019 conference. Authors of high-quality papers will be then invited to submit their full papers for the planned special volume after taking into account audience’s comments during the conference.