Fall Semester 2026-2027

Title: "Uniform Inference with General AR(p) Processes"
(co-authored with Tassos Magdalinos)

Speaker: Associate Professor Katerina Petrova, Ca’ Foscari University of Venice

Host:  Assistant Professor Alexopoulos Angelos, Department of Economics, Athens University of Economics and Business

Room:  76, Patission Str., Derigny Wing, 4th floor, Room D4.

Abstract: A unified theory of estimation and inference is developed for an AR(p) process with p distinct roots in ( -∞, ∞) which include roots in the stationary, local-to-unity, explosive and all intermediate regions. We propose a novel estimation procedure, based on an artificially constructed AR(p) process built with data-driven combination of a near-stationary and a mildly explosive roots and used as an instrumental variable. Our IV procedure delivers mixed-Gaussian limit theory and gives rise to an asymptotically standard normal t-statistic and x₂ Wald statistics across all autoregressive regions. The resulting hypothesis tests and confidence intervals are shown to have correct asymptotic size (uniformly over the space of autoregressive parameters and the space of innovation distribution functions) in autoregressive and predictive regression models, thereby establishing a general and unified framework for inference with autoregressive processes. Extensive Monte Carlo simulation shows that the proposed methodology exhibits very good nite sample properties over the entire Autoregressive parameter space ( -∞, ∞)

Title: "Taxing What You Cannot See: Hidden Income and Measured Inequality in Greece"
(co-authored with Fotis Delis, Joint Research Centre of the European Commission, Stamatia Ftergioti, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Theano Kakoulidou, Economic and Social Research Institute and Trinity College Dublin) 

Speaker: Assistant Professor Yota Deli, University College Dublin

Host: Assistant Professor Georgios Manalis & Assistant Professor Ioannis Kospentaris, Department of Economics, Athens University of Economics and Business

Room:  76, Patission Str., Antoniadou Wing, 4th floor, Room A41

Abstract: We examine how the structure of the Greek personal income tax affects measured inequality when a large share of income is not declared. We reconstruct the income distribution and the full tax computation for 2013 to 2023 from the tax tabulations the tax authority publishes every year, and validate them against an administrative sample of tax returns matched to the social security registers for 2015, 2017 and 2019. We find that the self employed earn 1.84 times what they declare, and that a further 1.2 to 1.75 billion euro is earned by self employed who declare nothing, a margin that no multiplier on reported income can reach. On the distributions as declared, the personal credit delivers two thirds of the redistribution the income tax does, and the presumptive income floor moves the distribution by more than the income tax itself.

Title: "TBA"

Speaker: Professor David Albouy, University of Illinois

Host:  Assistant Professor Efthymios Athanasiou, Department of Economics, Athens University of Economics and Business

Room:  76, Patission Str., Antoniadou Wing, 4th floor, Room A41